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Barack Obama = Howard Dean?

Barack Obama's campaign announced that it will launch its youth outreach arm this weekend in Miami. It's calling it "Generation Obama"... a name that recalls the failed Howard Dean campaign of 2004.
 
In fact, the Obama campaign seems eager to invite comparisons to that disastrous Dean campaign. A few examples
 
Campaign Slogans: Dean for America; Obama for America
 
Youth outreach organizations: Generation Dean; Generation Obama
 
Main Theme: opposition to the Iraq war & change from Bush administration policies
 
Early Claim to Fame: broad based, low-dollar contributions drawing in bigger contributors
 
Of course, everyone remembers the final outcome of the Dean campaign: lots of excited supporters, lots of money, not many votes, a scream and a Kerry nomination.
Created: 8/25/2007 3:14:37 PM; Modified: 8/25/2007 3:14:37 PM

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Straw Poll Facts -- A History

-This is the fifth such event at Ames.
 
-It was originally entitled the “Presidential Cavalcade of Stars.” That name was dropped after the second event in 1987.
 
-In 1979, the straw poll consisted of a $50 a plate dinner attracting about 1500 people. The Winner: George H. W. Bush with 36% of the vote. Bush went on to win the Caucuses. Former TX Governor John Connally finished with 15.3%. Ronald Reagan won 11.3%. even though Reagan didn’t participate; his field director dismissed it as a “classic cattle show," and Reagan said it "caused conflict within the party."
 
I think everyone remembers who won the nomination and the election.
 
-In 1987, the Iowa GOP dropped the dinner, halved the cost and sold tickets to anyone who wanted to vote. Almost 4,000 did.
 
Pat Robertson won, Dole won the Caucuses and GHWB won the nomination
 
-1995 was the bleakest year, even though it was the most successful up to that point with almost 11,000 attendants.
 
The NYT reported that officials from several campaigns estimated that 40% of the participants were from out of state, and other news reports said “voters would have their hands stamped [after voting], run into the bathroom to wash the ink off, and go vote again.”
 
Bob Dole and Phil Gramm tied for the win, but organizer Craig Robinson told “Campaigns & Elections” magazine that the “rampant cheating” meant that few took the results seriously -- leading the party to institute new rules.
 
-In 1999, permanent ink was used to stamp people’s hands and out-of-state voters were banned.
 
Pat Buchanan rightly predicted that “The Grim Reaper is going to be waiting outside the fieldhouse in Ames.”
 
George W. Bush won with 31%. He reportedly spent about $825,000. Steve Forbes came in second, spending a then-eye-popping $2 million for the privilege. Lamar Alexander and Dan Quayle had disappointing finishes, and dropped out shortly thereafter.  Elizabeth Dole limped on until October, dropping out before a single vote had been cast.
 
Bush used his strong showing in Ames as a springboard to winning 41% in the January caucuses. The real winner that year: the Iowa GOP, with a take of nearly $1 million.
 
All info from this month’s “Campaigns & Elections” magazine.
Created: 8/11/2007 1:52:13 PM; Modified: 8/11/2007 1:52:13 PM

Latest on Fred Thompson announcement

On Tim Russert's announcement that "NBC News has learned" that Fred Thompson is "now scheduled to announce" his candidacy on 9/5, Fred Thompson campaign insiders say:

"I don't know where Tim Russert is getting his information but Fred hasn't even made a final decision to be a presidential candidate yet, and therefore has not made a decision about when to announce. That's just a step away from where we are now."

On a related note we should expect to see Fred at the Iowa State Fair on August 13th or 14th "We're going to go, but certainly not before the Straw Poll...we're not going to get too cute there."

Created: 8/6/2007 2:32:04 PM; Modified: 8/6/2007 2:32:04 PM

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