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The primary calendar may be in turmoil, but there's at least one GOP candidate grinning ear to ear at all the changes -- former NY Mayor Rudy Giuliani. Here's the campaign's political calculus:
All of the early voting states are proportional -- meaning that the winner of the primary or caucus does NOT get all of that state's delegates. In addition, each of the states that have violated RNC rules by moving their primary ahead of the GOP-sanctioned calendar will be penalized 50% of their delegates by the national committee.
That means that even if a candidate sweeps all the early races, they'll receive only half of a proportional amount of all available delegates -- meaning that their numerical bounce would be miniscule prior to January 29th.
That date, of course, is the Florida primary -- the first one where the winner takes all. Rudy has what looks like an insurmountable lead in the state. That state has long been Giuliani's firewall -- where he has to win to stop any possible bleeding from losses in Iowa or New Hampshire.
But assuming he does well and wins on the 29th, the real killer is February 5th -- when more than 20 states will hold nominating contests. Arizona will likely give home state Senator John McCain all of its 30-odd delegates. Utah will likely give Mormon candidate Mitt Romney all its 50-odd delegates. Giuliani has New York, Connecticut, New Jersey, and Pennsylvania -- states with some 200 delegates all told -- all but locked down. He's also 20 points ahead in Illinois, another delegate rich state, not to mention California which also votes on the 5th and could easily be won by Giuliani. But he's nearly guaranteed 200+ delegates on the 5th, and will probably have 120 or so from Florida going into the massive primary date.
Of course, this argument discounts any momentum that a candidate like Mitt Romney could gain from big wins in Iowa and New Hampshire, or that Fred Thompson could build from a win in South Carolina on January 19th. But Rudy is still leaving a window open to compete in those states, and isn't performing poorly there -- especially in New Hampshire or South Carolina. He'll likely pick up enough delegates in those states to mitigate those losses. |  | Created: 8/30/2007 3:33:55 PM; Modified: 8/30/2007 3:33:55 PM
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The Politico reports that GOP activists are rooting for Hillary Clinton to win the Democratic nomination, hoping that Republican voters otherwise uninspired by the current crop of candidates will be fired up enough to rally to the polls to keep Hillary out of the White House.
GOP leaders going public with their stance also it telegraphs to the rank and file that they should be prepared to trash her in any and all ways in a matter of 6 months.
It is noteworthy that of all the Republicans, the only one who regularly gets headlines for attacking Democrats is Rudy.
The Obama and Edwards campaigns suggest that Republicans want Clinton because their guys would make stronger general election Democratic nominees.
In the next month, Clinton will lay out her universal health care plan and intensify her emphasis on EXPERIENCE.
Obama attends a Martha's Vineyard fundraiser this week and spends a few days on the beach to hammer out a new stump speech with hotter rhetoric for after Labor Day.
Edwards has been the most aggressive against Clinton recently, and it will lead to even hotter rhetoric from all of them post Labor Day | | Created: 8/27/2007 10:39:22 AM; Modified: 8/27/2007 10:39:22 AM
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The DNC vote today is NOT the FINAL WORD.
This is really only the beginning of a long process that could include litigation and more date shuffling or NOT.
Historically this THREAT of exclusion has been HOLLOW.
For decades states have been threatened with exclusion by national parties for jumping the calendar but in the end delegates from said states have been counted and their delegates seated at the conventions.
Several prominent Democrats in Washington and around the country with years of experience and involvement in this and past standoffs continue to predict that Democrats will NOT (indeed cannot) afford to hold a national convention two months before the general election and exclude delegates from the crucial swing states of Florida and Michigan!!
Assuming Florida sticks with January 29th and Michigan goes ahead with its planned move to January 15th, most candidates will take part and campaign in both. Some will get attention and momentum, which will help determine the outcome of Feb 5th and ultimately the nomination.
Six months will pass, Democrats will gather in Denver, and NOBODY will care that they went out of turn.
The party will be at risk of appearing divisive and exclusionary for an "inside baseball" rules violation that few understand, or will rememeber by then.
The DNC could "disenfranhcise" voters in the recount land of Fla,, where the word "disenfranchisement" is a bloody shirt in dem circles
For years party decisions to reverse their own exclusion of delegates have consistently turned on a simple fact... a national party convention is about UNITY behind the NOMINEE. To that end the candidate will NOT want Florida and Michigan excluded, and just as it has everytime in the past, one way or another, the party will find a way to fix it before the convention. | | Created: 8/25/2007 2:51:27 PM; Modified: 8/25/2007 2:51:27 PM
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Fred Thompson plans to spend three hours or more touring the Iowa State fair today. He's on his first visit to the Hawkeye state as a prospective candidate. Fred's main Iowa staffer Andrew Dorr has arranged for GOP Senator Chuck Grassley to squire him around the fair.
When the senator arrives, Thompson will walk with Grassley around the fair. But for the rest of the time, he'll be in a golf cart -- unlike any other candidate who's been here for the last two weeks. | | Created: 8/17/2007 1:55:44 PM; Modified: 8/17/2007 1:55:44 PM
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Rudy Giuliani showed up at the state fair in a beige shirt, creased and folded like it had been in a suitcase or on a store shelf. After his remarks -- and after he'd sweated through the new shirt -- he went into the men's room to cool off, and a fairgoer literally gave him the shirt off his back so he wouldn't look so sweaty. The new one was blue with short sleeves -- and by the end of his time at the fair, he'd sweated through that one as well.
Rudy didn’t sample any of the more exotic fair food, although he did have an infamous pork chop on a stick, and bought brats and turkey legs for several staffers. He also did the obligatory pork chop flipping at the pork tent's massive outdoor grill. He visited the butter cow, he expressed his commitment to winning the Iowa caucuses at Jalapeno Pete's, talked to the interactive robot who asked where he stood on robot immigration, and he even got a temporary tattoo.
Rudy took questions from the audience, Hillary didn’t. Rudy didn’t do a rope, Hillary did. He stayed for more than three hours, Hillary more than two -- although to be fair, she was there during the heat of the day, while Giuliani stayed an hour longer in the cooler evening temperatures. | | Created: 8/16/2007 2:40:07 PM; Modified: 8/16/2007 2:40:07 PM
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Bill Richardson stopped by the Iowa State Fair, where he had a bigger and more enthusiastic crowd than Sen. John McCain -- who was there right before him. Richardson is on a six day swing through Iowa.
The former New Mexico Governor has been stuck in fourth place in most polls, but he's ready to do something about that. Watch for Richardson to start going after John Edwards -- the man directly ahead of him in the polls.
Aides point to Richardson's new campaign ad on job creation in New Mexico, saying that will open up an opportunity to go after Edwards on jobs and the economy. Just how that will work, considering that Edwards has based a good portion of his campaign on labor and poverty issues, they wouldn't say. | | Created: 8/14/2007 4:46:23 PM; Modified: 8/14/2007 4:46:23 PM
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Bill Richardson stopped by the Iowa State Fair, where he had a bigger and more enthusiastic crowd than Sen. John McCain -- who was there right before him. Richardson is on a six day swing through Iowa. The former New Mexico Governor has been stuck in fourth place in most polls, but he's ready to do something about that. Watch for Richardson to start going after John Edwards -- the man directly ahead of him in the polls.
Aides point to Richardson's new campaign ad on job creation in New Mexico, saying that will open up an opportunity to go after Edwards on jobs and the economy. Just how that will work, considering that Edwards has based a good portion of his campaign on labor and poverty issues, they wouldn't say. | | Created: 8/14/2007 4:38:42 PM; Modified: 8/14/2007 4:38:42 PM
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Straw Poll Predictions: Romney should win big enough to meet expectations.
Huckabee MUST have strong second or he fades. He has.lots of buzz, but not much organization to bring it here or harness it afterward.
Brownback's only hope is an upset 2nd, and it's unlikely -- even though they bought tickets and food for several thousand.
Tancredo's Army Against Amnesty is out en masse, he'll do OK today -- at least well enough to remain.
Ron Paul supporters are here in large numbers, and they're making their presence felt. They seem to have the most signs, and they have the loudest chants -- even if all of them mostly just say "Ron Paul" over and over. He stays in regardless of today's outcome.
A McCain presence has yet to be identfied, and countless people are stupified that he is not making a cameo.
Rudy Giuliani's local Iowa people are here, encouraging all to think they are not competing. Scoring above candidates who are here is VERY likely... he should finish just respectably enough as a no show. | | Created: 8/11/2007 3:53:16 PM; Modified: 8/11/2007 3:53:16 PM
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...but it won't be in December. Democratic Governor Chet Culver said Iowa will use all resources at its disposal -- including changing its law to allow the state to vote closer to New Hampshire's primary, and changing the traditional Monday caucus to another day of the week -- to keep the caucus in 2008, but still befirst in the nominating process. He said officials had not yet discussed possible dates other than January 14th, when Iowa was originally set to hold its caucus. They're waiting until New Hampshire decides on a new date for its first in the nation primary.
Culver was once Iowa's Secretary of State, so he know the drill -- even if he doesn't know how to say the NH Secretary of State's name He repeatedly mispronounced Bill Gardner's name, even after multiple reporters said it, making it "Bill Gartner."
Culver also | | Created: 8/10/2007 6:20:38 PM; Modified: 8/10/2007 6:20:38 PM
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We'll be covering the Republican candidates in Iowa tomorrow as they start trickling into the state and speaking at the Des Moines Register's famous Soap Box at the Iowa State Fair. Which brings us to an interesting history lesson:
The terms Soap Box and Stump have a prominent place in presidential campaigns. To be out "stumping" comes from fact that in the 1800’s, candidates would literally stand on a stump to get head and shoulders above the crowd and be heard.
"Soap box," on the other hand, is French. When people were about to be hanged or beheaded in the French court, they were allowed to state their piece before being executed -- and they would do so from on top of a soap box. They were allowed to talk as long as they wanted, but when they came down they'd be killed. When someone said "come down off your soap box," that meant it was time to die.
Of course, in American politics the terms have become almost synonymous. | | Created: 8/8/2007 6:55:49 PM; Modified: 8/8/2007 6:55:49 PM
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The Edwards campaign is in a bit of a scramble at this hour. An AP story and Edwards' attack on News Corp today -- in which he called on Democratic candidates to return donations from company executives -- did not include the fact that Edwards received a $500,000 book advance plus $300,000 in expenses from News Corps subsidiary Harper Collins for a coffee table called "Home," published last year.
When Fox News called the Edwards campaign a short time ago asking for a statement regarding the commercial relationship between Mr Edwards and News Corp, spokesman Eric Schultz said "he was talking about political donations, and there’s a difference." Asked if he’d like to make a statement about the commercial relationship in the context of his challenge to other candidates to reject political donations, Schultz promised a written statement.
UPDATE: Here's the statement from Schultz:
"We've called on Democrats running for President to return any political contributions made to them by Rupert Murdoch and the biased top executives at News Corp who make editorial decisions and regularly bash Democrats on Fox News. Were not asking everyone to stop using MySpace, because this is about whether or not Murdoch should expand his media empire and use the Wall Street Journal to further promote his rightwing agenda. All the money Edwards made from writing his book went to charity. We're more than happy to give even more of Murdoch's money to Habitat for Humanity and other good causes." | | Created: 8/2/2007 6:11:00 PM; Modified: 8/2/2007 6:11:00 PM
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The Edwards campaign is in a bit of a scramble at this hour. An AP story and Edwards' attack on News Corp today -- in which he called on Democratic candidates to return donations from company executives -- did not include the fact that Edwards received a $500,000 book advance plus $300,000 in expenses from News Corps subsidiary Harper Collins for a coffee table called "Home," published last year.
When Fox News called the Edwards campaign a short time ago asking for a statement regarding the commercial relationship between Mr Edwards and News Corp, spokesman Eric Schultz said "he was talking about political donations, and there’s a difference." Asked if he’d like to make a statement about the commercial relationship in the context of his challenge to other candidates to reject political donations, Schultz promised a written statement.
We are waiting. | | Created: 8/2/2007 5:48:31 PM; Modified: 8/2/2007 5:48:31 PM
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